Here’s what Sunday night’s awards might have told us about this year’s Oscar race—and why some overlooked films and performances still have time to break through.
The best-picture race is still wide open. Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland was the winner in the best picture, drama category. But Minari was not deemed eligible, and three other strong contenders, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, were not even nominated. (All three, however, did get recognized by the Screen Actors Guild.) The fluidity of this year’s best-picture category was reflected by the predictions of notable Oscar prognosticators going into Sunday’s ceremony. Vanity Fair, the New York Times, and The Hollywood Reporter had all picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win; the Los Angeles Times and Variety (as well as Vogue) had gone with Nomadland; and the New York Post predicted a win for Mank, an early front-runner that now seems to be fading. Plus, a Globes win in the best-picture category hasn’t proven terribly predictive in recent years. Last year’s best-drama prize went to 1917, which was beaten out by Parasite on Oscar night. And in the past five years, only one Golden Globes winner—Moonlight—also took that year’s Oscar. So, while Nomadland might have gotten a slight edge over its competitors with Sunday night’s win, its path to Oscar glory is far from assured.
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